The current El Niño has strengthened to +2.0°C on the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Relative Oceanic Niño Index for August to October, according to a report published by The Watchers on 10 November. The fuller data table gives +1.97°C, against +2.07°C for the same months in 1997, so the present event is about 0.10°C behind that benchmark, and the gap has narrowed since the previous reading.
The Watchers reports that NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in its October discussion, gave an 83 per cent chance of a “historic” event for October to December, defined as a three-month reading of +2.5°C or more, and 70 per cent for November to January. The centre expects strong to very strong conditions through early 2027, with a return to neutral favoured by April to June. The all-time peak on this index remains +2.40°C, set in the winter of 1982–83, and NOAA has not declared a record. The next monthly update is due on 12 November.
Early effects are being noted. As of early November the Atlantic hurricane season had produced just one hurricane, the fewest since 1925, according to The Weather Company, and several US cities, including Albuquerque, Flagstaff and West Palm Beach, have had their wettest autumn on record to date. Meteorologist Eric Webb told The Weather Company that typical El Niño winter patterns began one to two months early.
Reporting note: This story relies on one outlet, The Watchers, which in turn cites NOAA data and secondary reports. The readings are provisional and can change for up to two months. Different indices give different rankings, and the peak scenarios discussed are comparisons with past events, not forecasts.
Photo: NASA / Public domain / Wikimedia Commons
